A modular theory of learning and performance.

We describe a theory to account for the acquisition and extinction of response rate (conditioning) and pattern (timing). This modular theory is a development of packet theory (Kirkpatrick, 2002; Kirkpatrick & Church, 2003) that adds a distinction between pattern and strength memories, as well as contributing closed-form equations. We describe the theory using equations related to a flow diagram and illustrate it by an application to an experiment with repeated acquisitions and extinctions of a multiple-cued-interval procedure using rats. The parameter estimates for the theory were based on a calibration sample from the data, and the predictions for different measures of performance on a validation sample from the same data (cross-validation). The theory's predictions were similar to predictions based on the reliability of the behavior.